[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 25 10:27:37 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               70/5               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. The solar wind decreased 
to 500 km/s and is expected to decrease to normal levels and 
remain at normal levels for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22321211
      Darwin               5   21221211
      Townsville           8   22232222
      Learmonth            8   22322222
      Camden               4   11221111
      Canberra             4   12221111
      Hobart               6   22321210
      Casey(Ant)          12   3-432222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2312 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec     6    Quiet 
26 Dec     2    Quiet 
27 Dec     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Dec    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
26 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
27 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 22 December 
and is current for interval 23-25 December. Expect depressions 
of 10 to 30% most likely at local night for equatorial and northern 
Australian regions. Isolated cases of sporadic E noted at most 
stations. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 529 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   173000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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