[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 24 10:04:42 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible solar disk is spotless. The solar wind reached 580
km/s and is presently about 540 km/s. The solar wind is expected
to remain elevated for the next 24 hours and then steadily decrease.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 22222333
Darwin 9 21222333
Townsville 11 22223333
Learmonth 12 22233333
Camden 7 12222322
Canberra 7 12222322
Hobart 9 22322322
Casey(Ant) 15 3--33333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0100 0321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 6 Quiet
26 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected to
continue today, 24 December, and expected to return to quiet
conditions for the following two UT days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 95% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 22 December
and is current for interval 23-25 December. Expect depressions
of 10 to 30% most likely at local night for equatorial and northern
Australian regions..
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 15700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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