[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 23 10:41:01 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible solar disk is spotless. The solar wind has increased
from 290 to 425km/s and data from ACE indicates the Earth is
moving through a co-rotating interaction region preceding a coronal
hole. Due to the recurrent coronal hole the solar wind speeds
are expected to reach 600 km/s. Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field dipped down to -10 nT between approximately 1500-1630
UT, otherwise the Bz was mostly northward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 11111323
Darwin 5 10101323
Townsville 6 22221-22
Learmonth 6 11101323
Camden 5 11101322
Canberra 2 101011--
Hobart 4 11100-32
Casey(Ant) 10 23222323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1010 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for
the next 3 days due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind
stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
24 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Expect depressions of 10 to 30% most likely at local
night at mid to low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 30200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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