[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 22 10:33:53 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low activity expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity
fell to be 280km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind speed
is expected to increase in the next 24-36 hours due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Bz ranged between
+2nT and -4nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11220111
Darwin 2 11110002
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 3 20120200
Camden 2 11210011
Canberra 2 10220011
Hobart 2 11210011
Casey(Ant) 6 2-322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Dec 12 Unsettled
24 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days
due to the arrival of a hole speed solar wind stream from a
recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Dec -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 20 December
and is current for interval 20-22 December. Mostly normal HF
conditions during local day for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions.
Depressed conditions for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions expected for the next 3 days, with MUF
depressions 10%-20% expected for mid to high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 46300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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