[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 21 10:44:15 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low activity expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity
remains low at ~340km/s, with an expected increase on 22Dec due
to a recurrent coronal hole. Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT over
the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11211111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 10122110
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 3 20211110
Hobart 2 10211100
Casey(Ant) 6 23-22111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0011 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 5 Quiet
22 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with Quiet
to Unsettled conditions for 22Dec-23Dec due to a recurrent coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Dec -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Dec -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 20 December
and is current for interval 20-22 December. Depressed conditions
during local day and night for Equatorial regions and disturbed
periods for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions due to sporadic
E effects. Depressed conditions for Antarctic regions. Depressed
ionospheric conditions are expected for the next few days with
MUF depressions of 10%-30%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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