[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 20 10:43:42 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low activity expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity
remains low at ~320km/s with an expected increase on 22Dec due
to a recurrent coronal hole. Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the
UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11122112
Darwin 4 11122112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 11122212
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 4 11122111
Hobart 4 11112211
Casey(Ant) 7 2-322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 5 Quiet
21 Dec 5 Quiet
22 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days with possible
Unsettled conditions for 22Dec due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions during local day and night for
all regions. Ocassional disturbed periods for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions due to sporadic E effects. Depressed
ionospheric conditions are expected for the next few days with
MUF depressions of 10%-30%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 11800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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