[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 19 10:34:13 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low activity expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity
fell slightly to be ~290km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged
between 2nT and -4nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 3 12102111
Camden 3 12111111
Canberra 3 12201011
Hobart 2 11201011
Casey(Ant) 5 2-321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2210 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 5 Quiet
20 Dec 5 Quiet
21 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 17 December
and is current for interval 17-19 December. Depressed conditions
observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions during local day
and night with similar conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Depressed conditions for Antarctic regions over the entire UT
day. Similar conditions are expected for the next few days with
MUF depressions of 10%-30%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 27200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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