[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 18 10:39:58 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low activity expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity
fell slightly to be ~340km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged
between +/-5nT, with some sustained southward periods.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 34322312
Darwin 8 -4212212
Townsville 12 33323322
Learmonth 12 34323311
Camden 9 23312321
Canberra 10 24312312
Hobart 9 24312301
Casey(Ant) 19 45432322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0110 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 5 Quiet
19 Dec 5 Quiet
20 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominently Quiet over the
last 24 hours, with an isolated Active period between 03-06UT.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Dec -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Dec -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 17 December
and is current for interval 17-19 December. Depressed conditions
observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions during local night,
as well for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Mostly normal conditions
for those regions during local day, with depressed conditions
for Antarctic regions over the entire UT day. Similar conditions
are expected for the next few days with MUF depressions of 10%-30%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 54200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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