[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 17 10:36:53 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very low activity expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity
increased slightly to be ~360km/s at the time of this report.
Bz ranged between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22222123
Darwin 7 22222123
Townsville 9 22222233
Learmonth 11 23233133
Camden 5 12122122
Canberra 6 12212222
Hobart 5 12212122
Casey(Ant) 13 34322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 5 Quiet
18 Dec 5 Quiet
19 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
18 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec -44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
18 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Dec -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions during local day and night, as well for Southern AUS/NZ
regions. Continued sporadic E observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Mostly normal conditions for Antarctic regions with
some disturbed periods. Similar conditions are expected for the
next few days with MUF depressions of 10%-30%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 38100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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