[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 16 10:51:22 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very low activity expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity
remained steady at ~340km/s over the UT day. Bz fluctuated between
+/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22211112
Darwin 3 21101112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 -3211212
Camden 3 11210112
Canberra 3 11200112
Hobart 3 12210111
Casey(Ant) 5 2--21221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 5 Quiet
17 Dec 5 Quiet
18 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
17 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
18 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
17 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
18 Dec -35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 15-16 December. Depressed conditions
observed for all regions during the last 24 hours. Sporadic E
observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Occasional periods
of normal ionospheric support observed for Southern AUS/NZ regions
and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next few days with MUF depressions of 10%-25%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 55000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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