[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 15 10:27:30 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 1 100-----
Camden 1 01100011
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 1 11100001
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 5 Quiet
16 Dec 5 Quiet
17 Dec 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
16 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
17 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values at Vanimo. At Niue,
frequencies were 15-30% depressed with depressions to
40% 12-15 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
at Townsville 09-14 UT and to 40% at Darwin 16-20 UT.
At Cocos Is. frequencies were near predicted to 30%
depressed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
At Brisbane and Norfolk Is., frequencies were 15-35%
depressed until 17 UT then near predicted. At
Learmonth, frequencies were near predicted until 13 UT
then depressed to 40%. At other stations, frequencies
were near predicted to 20% depressed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 40%
observed at Macquarie Is. 12-16 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
16 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
17 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Sporadic E observed at times, mostly at mid-latitudes.
Sporadic E may degrade or disrupt F region communications at
times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 95100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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