[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Dec             15 Dec             16 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2

COMMENT: The solar wind speed reached approximately 480 km/s 
and then returned to normal levels over the last 24 hours. 
Expect the solar wind to remain at normal levels for the 
next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121012
      Darwin               2   11110012
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            4   22121012
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             2   11111011
      Hobart               2   11111011
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-332122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1001 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Dec     4    Quiet 
15 Dec     4    Quiet 
16 Dec     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Dec   -18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Dec   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
15 Dec   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
16 Dec   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 11 December 
and is current for interval 11-14 December. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    77600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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