[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 7 10:34:03 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream. Solar activity remains very low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 43333322
Darwin 15 43333323
Townsville 14 43333322
Learmonth 20 53344322
Camden 12 33233322
Canberra 13 33333322
Hobart 13 33333322
Casey(Ant) 26 55-42433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 1124 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Dec 5 Quiet
09 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased steadily over the UT day.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT with some sustained
periods of southward bias resulting in minor storm conditions
at high latitudes and isolated active periods at low to mid latitudes.
Otherwise conditions were mostly unsettled. Expect continuing
unsettled conditions day one with the chance of isolated active
intervals. Conditions should decline to generally quiet days
two to three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
09 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
08 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed Equatorial region. Mild
to moderate depressions most Aus/NZ regions, mainly local dawn.
Sustained periods of sporadic-E conditions at most Aus latitudes,
extending at times to Equatorial region. Mild depressions and
spread-F conditions Antarctic region in association with elevated
geomagnetic activity. Expect similar regional HF/ionospheric
conditions day one, possibly deteriorating again Equatorial/N
Aus regions days two to three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 65000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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