[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 8 10:50:11 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. The present coronal
hole wind stream appears to be in decline. There is an active
prominence on the north-eastern solar limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22232211
Darwin 6 21222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 22233221
Camden 6 12232111
Canberra 6 12232211
Hobart 9 23332211
Casey(Ant) 11 3--33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 7 2333 0210
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 5 Quiet
09 Dec 4 Quiet
10 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased steadily over the second
half of the UT day. There was a period of unsettled geomagnetic
conditions with active intervals at high latitudes during the
mid part of the UT day. Conditions declined to mostly quiet later
in the day. Conditions should continue to decline day one as
the coronal hole wind stream subsides. Expect generally quiet
conditions days two to three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec -50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec -35 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec -35 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
10 Dec -35 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 7 December
and is current for interval 8-10 December. Moderate to deep
depressions observed Equatorial/Aus regions mainly local night.
Sustained periods of sporadic-E conditions at most Aus latitudes,
extending at times to Equatorial region. Mild depressions and
spread-F conditions Antarctic region in association with elevated
geomagnetic activity. Expect similar regional HF/ionospheric
conditions day one, continuing weak ionosphere Equatorial/N Aus
regions days two to three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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