[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 6 10:34:46 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream. Solar activity remains very low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 21132323
Darwin 9 21132323
Townsville 11 22232333
Learmonth 10 31122423
Camden 8 11132323
Canberra 9 11142322
Hobart 10 11142323
Casey(Ant) 12 33322323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1312 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Dec 5 Quiet
08 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady at around 400 km/s
over the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF sustained southward
polarity over the first half of the UT day, resulting in an interval
of active geomagnetic conditions around 10UT. Otherwise conditions
were mostly unsettled. Expect continuing unsettled conditions
day one with the chance of isolated active intervals. Conditions
should decline to generally quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec -25 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec -20 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
08 Dec -25 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate depressions observed Equatorial region. Mild
to moderate depressions most Aus/NZ regions, mainly local night.
Periods of sporadic-E conditions at N-Central Aus latitudes,
extending at times to Equatorial region. Mild depressions and
spread-F conditions Antarctic region in association with elevated
geomagnetic activity. Expect similar regional HF/ionospheric
conditions next two days, possibly deteriorating again Equatorial/N
Aus regions day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:NaN%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 33500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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