[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 5 10:42:24 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream, but declined steadily over the
second half of the UT day. Solar activity remains very low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 24323211
Darwin 9 23323211
Townsville 10 23233222
Learmonth 10 23333212
Camden 8 23323111
Canberra 10 24323210
Hobart 10 24323210
Casey(Ant) 17 35433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0110 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Generally unsettled conditions observed due to the current
coronal hole solar wind stream. Isolated active periods at high
latitudes only. Conditions at all latitudes tending to quiet
later in the UT day. Expect continuing unsettled periods days
one and two, becoming quiet day three. Chance of isolated active
intervals mainly day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec -20 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate depressions observed Equatorial region. Mild
depressions most Aus/NZ regions. Widespread and occasionally
intense sporadic-E conditions at N-Central Aus latitudes. Mild
depressions and spread-F conditions Antarctic region in association
with elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect slightly improved
HF/ionospheric conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions next two days,
possibly deteriorating again day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 34800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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