[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 4 10:51:54 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased after 16UT indicating onset
of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. Solar activity remains
very low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 22222332
Darwin 8 21222323
Townsville 9 22222332
Learmonth 11 22223333
Camden 9 22222332
Canberra 10 22222333
Hobart 7 12222322
Casey(Ant) 9 3-322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
06 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet for the first
half of the UT day. The anticipated coronal hole wind stream
onset occurred after 16UT, with conditions tending towards unsettled.
Expect quiet to unsettled conditions next three days with the
chance of isolated active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Poor-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec -35 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 2 December
and is current for interval 3-4 December. Variable and occasionally
severe depressions observed Equatorial region, extending at times
to N Aus region. Widespread sporadic-E conditions observed Central-S
Aus latitudes local day 03 Dec and after local dawn 04 Dec. Expect
similar conditions day one. Possible disturbances Antarctic region
days two and three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 291 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 13000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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