[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 13 09:29:15 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind has ranged
from about 520 to 630 km/s over the last 24 hours. A longitudinally
small coronal hole will be geoeffectively positioned on the 14th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 4 22111211
Townsville 9 22322322
Learmonth 5 22211211
Camden 5 21212211
Canberra 6 22222211
Hobart 6 21222221
Casey(Ant) 10 33322312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3211 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 5 Quiet
14 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
15 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Activity may increase on the 14th due to the effects
of a high speed stream associated with a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
at Niue 19-23 UT. Some night spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
at Darwin 02-08 and 17-21 UT, to 30% at Cocos Is. 03-07
UT and to 30% at Townsville 00 and 23 UT. Night spread
F observed at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. At Christchurch depressions
to 25% were observed 06-08 and 11-13 UT and sporadic E
observed 01-18 UT. Night spread F observed at most stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
14 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
15 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
COMMENT: Sporadic E and night spread F may degrade or disrupt
F region communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 620 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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