[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 12 09:27:37 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind has ranged
from about 580 to 640 km/s over the last 24 hours. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over the next day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 5 22212211
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22223211
Camden 5 22222210
Canberra 6 22222211
Hobart 6 22213211
Casey(Ant) 12 33323232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 14 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 4431 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 5 Quiet
13 Aug 5 Quiet
14 Aug 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed to 50% at times at Vanimo. Niue frequencies
were mostly near predicted monthly values with
depressions to 30% 02-03, 08 and 20-23 UT. Sporadic E
observed at Vanimo 06-19 UT and Niue 01-09 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
30% at Darwin 03-06 UT and Townsville 23 UT. Sporadic
E observed at Darwin 05-17 UT and Townsville 09-11 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 40%
10-20 UT. Night spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
13 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
14 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
COMMENT: Sporadic E and night spread F may degrade or disrupt
F region communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 625 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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