[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 11 09:26:07 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind has ranged
from about 550 to 670 km/s over the last 24 hours. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over the next day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 33322321
Darwin 8 23322221
Townsville 13 34332322
Learmonth 11 33323321
Camden 9 23322311
Canberra 12 33333321
Hobart 11 33323311
Casey(Ant) 12 33332232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 62 (Active)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 3322 2454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 7 Mostly quiet. Possibility of isolated active
levels at high latitudes.
12 Aug 5 Quiet
13 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 9 August and
is current for interval 10-11 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Frequencies at Vanimo were mostly depressed to 50%
03-16 UT, otherwise near predicted monthly values;
sporadic E observed 14-20 UT. At Niue frequencies were
mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 25% 21-23 UT. Some night spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% observed at Darwin 04-06 and 20-21 UT and
Townsville 00 and 23 UT. Night spread F observed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 50%
observed at Christchurch and Hobart around 09-20 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly depressed 15 to 40%.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
12 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
13 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 288000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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