[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug:  65/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    65/0               65/0               65/0

COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless and the solar wind has returned 
to pre-coronal hole quiet conditions. These conditions are expected 
to prevail next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112111
      Darwin               4   22012111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            2   11112000
      Camden               2   11012000
      Canberra             2   11012000
      Hobart               2   11012000
      Casey(Ant)           7   23222112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3221 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     5    Quiet 
15 Aug     3    Quiet 
16 Aug     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue at quiet levels next three days 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Aug    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. 

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug    -5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
15 Aug    -5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 
16 Aug    -5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30% possible. 

COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT 
day, expected to continue next 3 days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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