[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 3 09:02:12 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days. Solar disk is spotless. Solar wind is just below normal
levels of 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +4nT to -2 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Darwin 3 21111011
Townsville 5 22212112
Learmonth 0 11000000
Camden 0 00001000
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 0 10001000
Casey(Ant) 3 11211011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 4 Quiet
04 Aug 4 Quiet
05 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Expect mostly quiet conditions over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Variable conditions during local day,
Enhanced by 10% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 10% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Expect normal conditions in the Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Also expect Normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions
with continued slight enhancements during local night. Slightly
enhanced conditons are expected in the antarctic region during
local night however usually show a weak trace on the ionogram.
Local day for the antarctic region should be near normal conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 99900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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