[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 2 09:05:15 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days. Solar disk is spotless. Solar wind remains around normal
levels 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +5nT to -2 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12101111
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 11101211
Camden 1 01000111
Canberra 2 01000121
Hobart 2 11101110
Casey(Ant) 6 13211221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1102 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 4 Quiet
03 Aug 4 Quiet
04 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Expect mostly quiet conditions over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 10% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 10-30% during local night when trace
is present but is usually very weak.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Noted sporadic E between 00-05UT at Canberra. Expect normal
conditions in the Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Also expect
Normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions with continued
slight enhancements during local night. Slightly enhanced conditons
are expected in the antarctic region during local night however
usually show a weak trace on the ionogram. Local day for the
antarctic region should be near normal conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 69600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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