[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 1 09:18:58 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days. Solar disk is spotless. Solar wind remains around normal
levels 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +5nT to -2 nT. SOHO LASCO C3 images show
an expulsion of solar material from just north of the equatorial
region of the west limb commencing at approximately 1842UT 31
July and still in progress. Appears to be farside activity and
should not be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 1 01111000
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 1 01120000
Hobart 2 01120010
Casey(Ant) 4 12221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1311 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 6 Quiet
02 Aug 4 Quiet
03 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Expect mostly quiet conditions over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Noted sporadic E around the sunset times in Vanimo and
Darwin. Expect normal conditions in the Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Also expect Normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions
with continued slight enhancements during local night. Slightly
enhanced conditons are expected in the antarctic region, however,
periods without a trace were noted on some ionograms.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 48900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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