[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 4 09:06:36 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days. Solar disk is spotless. Solar wind is just below normal
levels of 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11110121
Darwin 3 1111112-
Townsville 5 2221122-
Learmonth 3 1111022-
Camden 1 01100111
Canberra 2 01100121
Hobart 3 21100121
Casey(Ant) 5 22111221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 4 Quiet
05 Aug 4 Quiet
06 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Expect mostly quiet conditions over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Expect normal conditions in the Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Also expect Normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions
with continued slight enhancements during local night. Slightly
enhanced conditons are expected in the antarctic region during
local night however usually show a weak trace on the ionogram.
Local day for the antarctic region should be near normal conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 53800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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