[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 20 09:49:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity. Very Low to Low conditions are expected for
the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity ranged between 480km/s-580km/s
over the UT day. Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21210111
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 21210122
Camden 3 21110111
Canberra 3 21110111
Hobart 3 21120111
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2321 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 7 Quiet
21 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective
position from 21Apr onwards bringing Unsettled to Active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions during local day for Northern AUS
regions. Mostly normal HF conditions otherwise for Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions, with isolated disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for
the next 2 days with continued depressions of 10%-20% for Northern
Australia And Equatorial regions over the next 24 hours. Depressed
conditions expected for 22Apr due to an expected increase in
geomagnetic activity in the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 164000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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