[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 19 09:41:52 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days. Solar wind velocity remained at ~520km/s. Bz fluctuated
between +/-4nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 23222211
Darwin 5 22121211
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 6 22222212
Camden 5 22222111
Canberra 6 22222211
Hobart 6 13222111
Casey(Ant) 11 24332212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3311 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 7 Quiet
20 Apr 7 Quiet
21 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective
position from 21Apr onwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Apr 14 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions during local night for Equatorial
regions with notable sporadic E for Equatorial/Northern AUS regions.
Mostly normal HF conditions otherwise for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions, with continued disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next 2
days with continued depressions of 10%-20% for Northern Australia
And Equatorial regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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