[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 18 09:38:31 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
no flare activity. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days. Solar wind velocity decreased from 580km/s at 0000UT 
to be 520km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between 
+/-3nT over the UT day. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22121211
      Darwin               5   22112211
      Townsville           9   33222222
      Learmonth            6   22122221
      Camden               4   22111111
      Canberra             5   23111210
      Hobart               5   22111311
      Casey(Ant)           8   23331211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart             112   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   3242 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr     7    Quiet 
19 Apr     6    Quiet 
20 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. With the gradual decrease in solar wind velocity, 
mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor     
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor     
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Apr     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
19 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
20 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions during local day for Equatorial 
and Northern AUS regions with notable sporadic E. Depressed conditions
also during local night for Equatorial regions. Southern AUS/NZ 
regions experienced mostly normal HF conditions with enhanced 
ionospheric support during local night. Disturbed conditions 
for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 
the next 3 days with continued depressions of 10%-20% for Northern 
Australia And Equatorial regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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