[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 17 09:52:39 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, 
with only minor B class events from region 990. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind velocity increased 
from 400km/s at 0000UT to be ~580km/s at the time of this report. 
Bz fluctuated between +/-10nT between 1000UT-1300UT and +/-5nT 
otherwise. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 16 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   22334332
      Darwin               9   22233222
      Townsville          13   22334233
      Learmonth           13   22334332
      Camden              12   21334322
      Canberra            13   21334332
      Hobart              12   21324332
      Casey(Ant)          11   32233232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   0000 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Apr     7    Quiet 
19 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours with the increase in solar wind velocity. Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 2 days. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for 19Apr. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor     
18 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Apr    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
18 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
19 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions observed 
over the last 24 hours with enhancements for Equatorial regions 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Disturbed conditions 
for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal conditions expected for 
the next 3 days with isolated depressions of 10%-20% possible 
for Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    31900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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