[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 16 09:50:38 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days. The solar
wind velocity declined gradually over the UT day from 400km/s
to be ~360km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between
+/-3nT for most of the UT day, with a sustained southward period
of -5nT beginning at 1900UT and still present at the time of
this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 22112223
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 7 22212223
Learmonth 7 12102224
Camden 5 3-102112
Canberra - --------
Hobart 2 10001112
Casey(Ant) 7 13211223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Apr 7 Quiet
18 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity observed over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 17Apr-18Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions observed
over the last 24 hours with depressed conditions for Equatorial
regions during local night and Northern AUS to Southern AUS/NZ
regions during local day. Enhanced conditions for Antarctic regions
during local day. Depressed MUFs of 20% possible over the next
2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 87200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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