[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 21 09:46:28 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity. Very Low conditions are expected for the next
3 days. Solar wind velocity was 540km/s at 0000UT and dropped
to 480km/s at the time of this report. The solar wind speed is
expected to increase in the next 24 hours due to the influence
of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Bz ranged between
+/-3nT with a prolonged southward period between 1330UT-1830UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21111211
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 21111322
Camden 3 21110211
Canberra 3 21110211
Hobart 4 21121211
Casey(Ant) 8 33311211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. The arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream is expected in the next 24-48 hours. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions are expected for 21Apr with Unsettled
to Active conditions for 22Apr-23Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours for
all regions with enhanced conditions during local day for Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Similar HF conditions expected for 21Apr. With
the expected increase in geomagnetic activity in the next 24-48
hours, isolated depressions expected for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions, depressed conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions and
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions for 22Apr-23Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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