[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 26 09:46:49 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind remains elevated, but is declining slowly from 600km/s
at 0000UT to be 500km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind
speed is expected to decline for the next 2 days with an expected
increase on 28Sep due to a new coronal hole then being in
geoeffective position. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-2nT
over UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next 3 days, with no active regions currently
on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 21211122
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 6 21220232
Camden 5 21211122
Canberra 4 21111122
Hobart 5 21212122
Casey(Ant) 10 3--21233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3421 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 6 Quiet
27 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions expected for the next 2 days. An
increase in activity is expected on 28Sep due to a new high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
27 Sep Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
28 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions and possible depressed
MUFs may be observed at most locations for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 0 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 0 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for Northern AUS regions
during local day and night. Equatorial regions experienced overnight
depressions. Southern AUS/NZ regions experienced depressed periods
during local day. Disturbed conditions and isolated enhancements
for Antarctic Regions. Similar conditions expected for the next
2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 662 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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