[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 25 09:47:26 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low for the last 24 hours.
Solar wind remains elevated at 600km/s due to coronal hole effects.
The solar wind stream is expected to decline over the next 2
days. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-4nT for the first half of the
UT day, and +/-2nT for the latter. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days, with no active
regions currently on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 23323212
Darwin 9 23323112
Townsville 10 23323222
Learmonth 11 --323313
Camden 7 23222112
Canberra 8 23223211
Hobart 8 23223212
Casey(Ant) 18 45-33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 3442 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep 6 Quiet
27 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours due to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole. Mostly Quiet conditions expected
for the next 3 days, with possible Unsettled periods for 25 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
26 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed at most locations for the
next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 0 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours, with disturbed
conditions for Antarctic Regions. Similar conditions expected
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 651 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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