[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 24 09:44:18 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low for the last
24 hours. There are no spots on the visible solar disk.
Due to the currently going on coronal hole effect the
solar wind stream remained strong. The solar wind speed
stayed between 600 km/s and 660 km/s for most part of the
UT day today. This coronal hole effect is expected to keep
the solar wind stream strengthened on 24 September and
then graudally decline. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to mild
(upto around +/-5nT) fluctuations on both sides of the
normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to active.
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 33332212
Darwin 8 23322112
Townsville 13 34333222
Learmonth 16 34433223
Camden 9 23332112
Canberra 12 23432213
Hobart 9 23332212
Casey(Ant) 16 44432223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3231 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 12 Mostly unsettled with some possibility of isolated
active conditions.
25 Sep 7 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible.
26 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic
activity enhanced to unsettled to active levels on 24
September on most locations. The geomagnetic activity is
then expected to gradually decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Fair-normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed on most locations on
to 24 September with the possibility of mild to moderate
degradations in conditions at times on high latitudes on
this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of significant degradations and depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%.
25 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
26 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild and sometimes moderate degradations
may be possible in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 24 September
due to an anticipated continued rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 603 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 223000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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