[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 23 09:42:00 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low for the last
24 hours. Due to the currently going on coronal hole effect
the solar wind stream remained strong. The solar wind speed
stayed between 550 km/s and 650 km/s througout the UT day
today. This coronal hole effect is expected to keep the solar
wind stream strengthened for the next 2 days. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor to mild (upto around +/-6nT) fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
There are no spots on the visible part of the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated minor storm periods on some high latitude locations.
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 13 33323332
Darwin 11 32223332
Townsville 12 33223332
Learmonth 15 3332-433
Camden 10 23213332
Canberra 13 23323333
Hobart 12 23323332
Casey(Ant) 17 4-432243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Camden 75 (Active)
Canberra 72 (Active)
Hobart 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2212 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 15 Mostly unsettled to active on most locations,
isolated minor storms possible on high latitudes.
24 Sep 10 Mostly unsettled with some possibility of isolated
active conditions.
25 Sep 6 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic
activity enhanced to unsettled to active levels on 23 and
24 September on most locations with some possibility of
isolated minor storm conditions on high latitudes on 23
September. The geomagnetic activity is then expected to
gradually decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed on most locations on
to 23 September with the possibility of mild to moderate
degradations in conditions on high latitudes on this day.
Periods of minor to mild degradations in conditions and
depressions in MUFs possible on high latitudes on 24
September as well.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%.
25 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild and sometimes moderate degradations
may be possible in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 23
September due to an anticipated continued rise in geomagnetic
activity level on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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