[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 22 09:49:36 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low for the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed remained below 450 km/s by
around 1200UT and then gradually rose to 550 km/s by the
time of this report (around 2330UT). The likely reason
for this increase in the solar wind speed seems to be the
previously anticipated coronal hole effect. This coronal
hole effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream
strengthened for the next 3 days. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor
to mild (upto around +/-5nT) fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value almost the whole day, staying positive
for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 21222223
Darwin 6 21222222
Townsville 9 22222233
Learmonth 11 32222333
Camden 7 11222223
Canberra 7 21222223
Hobart 8 21223223
Casey(Ant) 13 3-422233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 0102 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 15 Mostly unsettled to active on most locations,
isolated minor storms possible on high latitudes.
23 Sep 15 Mostly unsettled to active on most locations,
isolated minor storms possible on high latitudes.
24 Sep 10 Mostly unsettled with some possibility of isolated
active conditions.
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic
activity to unsettled to active levels from 22 to 24 September
on most locations with some possibility of isolated minor
storm conditions on high latitudes on 22 and 23 September.
The geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal-poor Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed on most locations from
22 to 24 September with the possibility of mild to moderate
degradations in conditions on high latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of minor to mild enhancements and depressions
observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
23 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%.
COMMENT: Minor to mild and sometimes moderate degradations may
be possible in the Southern Aus/NZ regions from 22 to 24 September
due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity levels on
these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 70700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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