[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 21 09:42:16 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low for the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed remained below 350 km/s by
around 0900UT and then gradually rose to 450 km/s by the
time of this report. The likely reason for this increase
in the solar wind speed seems to be a solar sector boundary
crossing. The effect of a recurrrent coronal hole is expected
to keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the next three
days. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) stayed slightly positive until around 0900UT and
then showed minor to mild fluctuations on both sides of the
normal value during the rest of the day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 12122232
Darwin 7 21122232
Townsville 10 22133233
Learmonth 11 12133333
Camden 6 11122232
Canberra 8 11132233
Hobart 6 11122232
Casey(Ant) 10 23322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0201 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Sep 15 Mostly unsettled to active on most locations,
isolated minor storm periods possible on high latitudes.
23 Sep 15 Mostly unsettled to active on most locations,
isolated minor storm periods possible on high latitudes.
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic
activity to unsettled to active levels from 21 to 23 September
on most locations with some possibility of isolated minor
storm conditions on high latitudes on 22 and 23 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
22 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed on most locations from
21 to 23 September with the possibility of mild to moderate
degradations in conditions on high latitudes during this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations and depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
22 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
23 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Minor to mild and sometimes moderate degradations
may be possible in the Southern Aus/NZ regions from 21 to 23
September due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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