[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 20 09:50:19 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low for the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed remained between 330 and 350
km/s almost the whole day. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed close to
the normal value during the first half of the UT day and
slightly to moderately (upto around +6nT) during the second
half. The effect of a recurrent coronal hole may strengthen
the solar wind stream from 21 September. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 12221111
Darwin 5 12------
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 12222111
Camden 1 01111000
Canberra 2 02110001
Hobart 3 12121001
Casey(Ant) 6 22321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2100 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 5 Quiet
21 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic
activity to unsettled levels on 21 and unsettled to active
levels on 22 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
22 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be observed on high and
some mid-latitude locations on 21 and 22 September due
to an expected rise in the geomagnetic activity level
on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods of
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 05%
21 Sep 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
22 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations may be possible
at times in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 21 and 22
September due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 41000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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