[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 19 09:28:31 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 70/5
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and
solar activity is expected to remain very low. Over the UT day
the solar wind speed was low (~350km/s) and the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/- 2 nT. Similar conditions
are expected 19-20 Sept. From 21 Sept. a recurring coronal hole
region is expected to raise solar wind speed and density to moderately
elevated levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin - --------
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 3 22112001
Camden 2 11012001
Canberra 1 --012000
Hobart 5 21122121
Casey(Ant) 5 3-221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 4 Quiet
20 Sep 5 Quiet
21 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day (18
Sept). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected 19-20 Sept.
Around 21 Sept. moderately elevated solar wind speed and density
are likely to produce some Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
20 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
21 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF conditions observed 18 Sept. with
generally weak ionospheric support due to the very low solar
activity. Expect mostly normal HF conditions 19-21 Sept. Spread
F possible at latitudes above ~ 40 degrees during night time
hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 5 about 15% below predicted monthly values
20 Sep 5 about 15% below predicted monthly values
21 Sep 5 about 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions continued in the equatorial and
N.Aus regions 18 Sept, particularly during local night. The S.Aus
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal. Minor depressions are
expected to continue over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 40500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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