[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 18 09:19:37 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and 
solar activity is expected to remain very low. Over the UT day 
the solar wind speed was low (350km/s) and the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/- 4 nT. Similar conditions 
are expected 18 Sept. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112011
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           5   22112122
      Learmonth            3   12112011
      Camden               1   10002001
      Canberra             2   11002001
      Hobart               2   10112001
      Casey(Ant)           3   11211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep     4    Quiet 
19 Sep     4    Quiet 
20 Sep     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day (17 
Sep). Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected 18-20 Sep. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair          
19 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair          
20 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair          
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF conditions observed 17 Sept. with 
generally weak ionospheric support due to the very low solar 
activity. Expect mostly normal HF conditions 18-20 Sept. Spread 
F possible at latitudes above ~ 40 degrees during night time 
hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Sep     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep     5    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
19 Sep     5    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
20 Sep     5    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions continued in the equatorial and 
N.Aus regions 17 Sept, particularly during local night. The S.Aus 
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal. Minor depressions are 
expected to continue over the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    42300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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