[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 17 09:28:35 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and
solar activity is expected to remain very low. The solar wind
speed is slow (350km/s) and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) stable, conditions expected to continue 17 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 7 22------
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 3 11210211
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 1 11010011
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 3 Quiet
18 Sep 3 Quiet
19 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day (16
Sep). Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected 17-19 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed 16 Sep. Expect mostly
normal HF conditions 17-19 Sep. Spread F possible at latitudes
above ~ 40 degrees overnight.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions continued in the equatorial and
N.Aus regions 16 Sep, particularly during the local day. The
S.Aus and Antarctic regions were mostly normal with some MUF
enhancements overnight. Mostly normal conditions expected 17-18
Sep. Spread F conditions possible in the S.Aus/NZ regions overnight.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 86600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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