[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 16 09:22:17 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and
solar activity is expected to remain very low. The high speed
coronal hole wind stream arrived 14/2000UT resulting in elevated
solar wind speeds, Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) 'turbulence'
and an initial enhancement in solar wind density. Maximum speed
reached was low at ~450km/s so the geomagnetic effects will be
small. The solar wind speed should decline steadily over the next
1-2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 7 32211222
Learmonth 7 32221221
Camden 2 21110101
Canberra 3 22110011
Hobart 3 21111111
Casey(Ant) 7 33211121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 0232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 5 Quiet
17 Sep 3 Quiet
18 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Unsettled for the first quarter
of the UT day (15 Sep) in response to the arrival fo a coronal
hole wind stream, from where it returned to Quiet for the remainder
of the UT day. The geomagnetic effects of this coronal hole were
smaller than predicted, and no further disturbance is expected.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions 16-18 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The anticiptated geomagnetic activity was less than
expected 15 Sep and unlikely to significantly effect HF conditions.
Spread F possible at latitudes above ~ 40 degrees overnight.
Otherwise mostly normal HF expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions continued in the equatorial and N.Aus
regions 15 Sep, particularly during the local day. The S.Aus
and Antarctic regions were mostly normal with some strong MUF
enhancements observed overnight. Continuing depressions 10-20%
are expected 16-17 Sep in the equatorial and N.Aus regions during
the day, otherwise mostly normal conditions expected. Spread
F conditions likely in the S.Aus/NZ regions overnight.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 33600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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