[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 27 09:51:20 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind continued to decline from 500km/s at 0000UT to be
400km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected
to decline over the next 24 hours, after which there is an expected
increase due to coronal hole effects. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-2nT over UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels for the next 3 days, with no active regions currently
on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21211111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth 3 21210021
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 3 11211011
Hobart 5 21222111
Casey(Ant) 8 33321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3011 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 6 Quiet
28 Sep 12 Unsettled
29 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
An increase in activity is expected from 28Sep due to a high
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
29 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Minor depressed MUFs for low latitudes and disturbed
periods for high latitudes observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
normal HF conditions for mid latitudes. Similar conditions expected
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
28 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
29 Sep 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for Northern AUS regions
during local day. Equatorial regions and Southern AUS/NZ regions
had mostly normal ionospheric support. Disturbed conditions and
continued isolated enhancements for Antarctic Regions. Mostly
normal conditions expected for the next 24 hours for all regions
except Antarctic. Possible enhancements for Southern AUS/NZ regions
on 28Sep with depressed conditions expected for mid to high latitude
regions from 29Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 566 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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