[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 6 09:47:54 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed observed at the L1 point by the ACE
spacecraft declined over the UT day from 550 to 450 km/sec and
is hence almost back at normal levels.
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
The STEREO-A 'ahead' spacecraft showed ~550km/s, likely the HSSWS
just past and the 'behind' STEREO-B ~450km/sec similar to ACE
at L1 http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_insitu.shtml
No coronal hole related HSSWS appears in STEREO-B which sees
solar wind the Earth will encounter later. The next recurrent
coronal hole due 6th Sept does not appear to be prominent in
SOHO spacecraft images
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/realtime-update.html
and may have dissipated since the last solar rotation. Solar
wind speed is expected to continue at current or lower levels
on 6 Sep, contrary to previous expectations from recurrence.
The IMF Bz component was mostly southwards, conducive to merging
with the geomagnetic field. No flare activity from AR970.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 22334212
Darwin 7 22233111
Townsville 12 23334222
Learmonth 16 23345222
Camden 9 12433111
Canberra 12 22434112
Hobart 12 22434211
Casey(Ant) 11 23333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 74 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2221 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity due to the last recurrent coronal
hole HSSWS subsided to lower levels on 5 Sept with declining
solar wind speed. The next predicted recurrent coronal hole HSSWS
due 6th Sept now seems unlikely (see solar). However, geomagntic
activity was elevated to occasionally active by consistent IMF
Bz southwards causing merging of the IMF and geomagnetic field.
This Bz south is unlikely to continue for all of 6 Sept.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 8 near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally expect frequencies to be returning to near
monthly averages today as solar coronal hole and merging of
solar-geomagnetic
fields effects decline. Next recurrent hole expected to take
effect on 6th Sept now seems unlikely. Very low ionistation from
AR970 may delay ionospheric recovery from last few days depression.
Strong sporadic E was observed at stations across a wide range
of latitudes and longitudes (Darwin, Canberra, Hobart, Nuie),
particularly at night. Spread F was also observed at night across
a range of latitudes to the east (Hobart, Nuie).These have occurred
on several nights this week and may degrade communications if
re-occurring.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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