[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 7 09:30:34 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Sep             08 Sep             09 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
 
COMMENT: The solar has increased from 450 km/s to approximately 
550 km/s over the last 24 hours. This was accompanied by a slight 
increase in the tempature and density of the solar wind. This 
increase may be due to earths entry into a solar sector boundary 
crossing. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was mostly southward over the last 24 hours ranging from +4 to 
-8 nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22222223
      Darwin               7   22122223
      Townsville           9   22222233
      Learmonth           11   22222334
      Camden               6   21121223
      Canberra             7   22121223
      Hobart               8   21132223
      Casey(Ant)          10   23322223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2442 3122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Sep    20    active 
08 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase today due 
to the increase in solar wind speed accompanied by a prolonged 
southerly Bz component of the IMF. Expect it to settle back to 
quiet to unsettled as the solar wind decreases over the following 
two UT days, 8-9 September. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Sep    0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 10-20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10% during local day. 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 10-20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 10-20% during local night.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
08 Sep     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
09 Sep     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Due to a minor disturbance in the magnetic field MUFs 
may be slightly depressed over the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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