[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 7 09:30:34 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar has increased from 450 km/s to approximately
550 km/s over the last 24 hours. This was accompanied by a slight
increase in the tempature and density of the solar wind. This
increase may be due to earths entry into a solar sector boundary
crossing. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
was mostly southward over the last 24 hours ranging from +4 to
-8 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22222223
Darwin 7 22122223
Townsville 9 22222233
Learmonth 11 22222334
Camden 6 21121223
Canberra 7 22121223
Hobart 8 21132223
Casey(Ant) 10 23322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2442 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 20 active
08 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase today due
to the increase in solar wind speed accompanied by a prolonged
southerly Bz component of the IMF. Expect it to settle back to
quiet to unsettled as the solar wind decreases over the following
two UT days, 8-9 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 10-20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 10% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 10-20% during local day.
Enhanced by 10-20% during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Due to a minor disturbance in the magnetic field MUFs
may be slightly depressed over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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