[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 5 09:44:53 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind speed observed at the L1 point by the ACE
spacecraft declined over the UT day from 650 to 550 km/sec and
is hence still enhanced. The next recurrent coronal hole high-speed
solar-wind stream (HSSWS), due 6th Sept, may be overlapping with
the one just rotating out of geo-effectiveness.
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
The STEREO-A 'ahead' spacecraft showed a more steady 600km/s,
likely the HSSWS just past and the 'behind' STEREO-B ~500km/sec,
likely the trough between the last and next HSSWS.
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_insitu.shtml
Solar wind speed is expected to maintain slightly elevated levels
on 5 Sep before increasing on 6 Sep. The IMF Bz component fluctuated
north and south, not conducive to merging with the geomagnetic
field. No significant X-ray flare activity from AR970.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22222112
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 7 22223122
Camden 4 12222011
Canberra 4 12222001
Hobart 5 12222012
Casey(Ant) 8 23322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 3323 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
07 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity due to the recurrent coronal hole
HSSWS should continue to subside on 5 Sept. The effect of the
next coronal hole should commence on 6th Sept. The two HSSWS
may have merged and solar wind speeds may not decline to normal
350 km/sec between them. Hence the geomanetic field may remain
slightly above quiet levels before increasing 6 Sept.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values although some
dusk and night depressions observed,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 10 about 5% below predicted monthly values
06 Sep 0 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Sep 8 about 5% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally expect frequencies to be returning to near
or slightly below monthly averages today as solar coronal hole
effects decline. Next recurrent hole expected to take effect
on 6th Sept. Solar wind speed remains moderately elevated however
so the geomagnetic field may remain slightly active before the
next cornal hole HSSWS. This will continue to depress the ionosphere
and there is also low ionistation from AR970 to replenish it.
Strong spread F was observed pre-dawn and night at many latitudes.
Sporadic E was also widespread although often non-blanketing.
This may degrade communications with multipath fading if it
re-occurs.Equatorial
latitudes showed slight depressions. Polar latitudes showed some
absorption although this was not a full PCA.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 623 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list