[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 2 09:36:03 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind density remained at moderately elevated levels
throughout the UT day while solar wind speed continued to increase
from 400 km/s to 530 km/s at the time of this report (23:30 UT).
This is due to the presence of a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a geo-effective coronal hole region on the solar
disk. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over the
next several days with another coronal hole region likely to
become geo-effective in around 48 hours. Solar activity is expected
to be very low over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22332222
Darwin 8 22232222
Townsville 11 22332332
Learmonth 12 22332333
Camden 7 11232222
Canberra 7 11232222
Hobart 10 21342222
Casey(Ant) 12 23332233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1112 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 22 active
03 Sep 16 active
04 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed throughout
the UT day. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be active
over the next 2 days due to the presence of two closely spaced
geo-effective coronal hole regions on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Fair-normal Fair
03 Sep Normal Fair-normal Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 31 August
and is current for interval 2-3 September. Current indications
are that the unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions over
the next few days are unlikely to depress Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) significantly.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 48400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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