[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 1 09:44:16 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind density was at moderately elevated levels
throughout the UT day and solar wind speed increased from 360
km/s to 420 km/s at around 21 UT. This is likely to be due to
the arrival of an anticipated high speed solar wind stream. Solar
wind speed is likely to increase over the next 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be very low over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Darwin 6 22211132
Townsville 8 12222233
Learmonth 8 222222-3
Camden 4 12111122
Canberra 5 12121122
Hobart 5 12121222
Casey(Ant) 9 33222213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 16 Unsettled to active
02 Sep 22 active
03 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 30 August and
is current for interval 31 August to 1 September. Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions were observed late in the UT day. It is likely that
a recurrent coronal hole region will cause unsettled to active
geomagnetic conditions over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
03 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to remain normal
over the next few days and are unlikely to be effected by the
anticipated minor geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 31 August
and is current for interval 2-3 September. Current indications
are that the anticipated unsettled geomagnetic conditions over
the next few days are unlikely to depress Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) significantly.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 52100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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