[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: The solar wind speed remains elevated. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to remain disturbed today and begin returning to 
normal on 4 September. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to active with
isolated minor storm levels from 09-15 UT at some stations. 

Estimated Indices 02 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   33344232
      Darwin              12   33243222
      Townsville          18   34344332
      Learmonth           23   34355332
      Camden              14   33344221
      Canberra            18   33354232
      Hobart              18   33354231
      Casey(Ant)          16   44333232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Camden              45   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2233 2223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep    16    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
04 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Sep     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Activity due to the recurrent coronal hole should subside 
on 4 September. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
04 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Sep    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      30% at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      25% 00-03 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions
      to 30% observed at various times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed 
                at times. 
04 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 31 August 
and is current for interval 2-3 September. Expect spread F to 
degrade night communications. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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