[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER

STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **

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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  Very low

Flares: None.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods. 

Estimated Indices 29 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22122233
      Darwin               8   21122233
      Townsville          10   22222234
      Learmonth           10   22122243
      Camden               7   11122233
      Canberra             9   12122234
      Hobart               7   11122233
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--22244
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              56   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2322 2311     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct    13    Unsettled to active 
31 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible on 30 Oct. Mostly quiet 
conditions on 31 Oct and 01 Nov. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair          
31 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Depressions likely at all latitudes on 30 Oct. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Oct   -22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values/depressed to 30% at all
latitudes.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
31 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
01 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 29 October 
and is current for interval 30 October to 1 November. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    62000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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